Future Influence Ranking of Scientific Literature

Researchers or students entering a emerging research area are particularly interested in what newly published papers will be most cited and which young researchers will become influential in the future, so that they can catch the most recent advances and find valuable research directions. However, predicting the future importance of scientific articles and authors is extremely hard due to the dynamic nature of literature networks and evolving research topics. Di↵erent from most previous studies aiming to rank the current importance of literature and authors, we focus on ranking the future popularity of new publications and young researchers by proposing a unified ranking model to combine various available information. Specifically, we first propose to use two kinds of text features, words and words co-occurrence to characterize innovative papers and authors. Then, instead of using static and un-weighted graphs, we construct timeaware weighted graphs to distinguish the various importance of links established at di↵erent time. Finally, by leveraging both the constructed text features and graphs, we propose a mutual reinforcement ranking framework called MRFRank to rank the future importance of papers and authors simultaneously. Experimental results on the ArnetMiner dataset show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the baselines on the metric recommendation intensity.